SRI Lanka's military spokesman, Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara, normally speaks in a deep, measured tone. But when asked to explain the army's progress in its war against the Tamil Tigers, his eyes light up and his voice quickens.
He reaches for his briefcase, pulls out an extendable pointer and turns to a map of Sri Lanka mounted in his office inside a Colombo high-security zone.
"We have been advancing at high speed; there is only a small area yet to be liberated," he says, gesturing to the patch of land still occupied by the rebels. "The army's morale is very high because we are making gains and results can be seen."
The brigadier's enthusiasm isn't surprising. Many Sri Lankan army officers have spent their whole careers fighting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The rebels are now surrounded in about 400 square kilometres of jungle on the far north-east coast of Sri Lanka and hopes are high in Colombo that Asia's longest-running civil war is almost over.
Many independent analysts and diplomats based here agree that the LTTE is on the brink of military defeat. "There is a palpable sense of victory here in Colombo, especially among the armed forces," said a senior Western diplomat.
The Tigers started fighting for a separate state for Tamils in Sri Lanka's north and east in 1983, claiming they were being discriminated against and subjected to violence by successive majority Sinhalese governments. The Tamil community, which is predominantly Hindu, accounts for about 18 per cent of the population, while the predominantly Buddhist Sinhalese majority make up more than 70 per cent.
Not long ago, the apparently invincible LTTE ran a parallel government covering almost a third of the country.
But a determined military build-up by President Mahinda Rajapaksa's Government has been a major factor in the reversal of fortunes.
A crackdown on fund-raising for the Tigers in Western countries and more stringent patrolling of the coast by the Sri Lankan and Indian navies, to cut off the Tigers' supply of weapons, have also contributed
The LTTE has been banned in many countries because of its use of suicide bombers and child soldiers, widespread human rights abuses, and its intolerance of any dissent among Sri Lankan Tamils.
However, the Government's military success has come at a high price. Sri Lanka's war effort has left the economy stunted and dangerously exposed to the global financial crisis.
For a small island, Sri Lanka has a huge army. It has 180,000 regular troops, compared with Australia's 25,000, even though the two countries are similar in population.
The country has also invested heavily in weapons systems. Military spending has surged to about 5 per cent of GDP and soaks up about 20 per cent of the Government's budget.
Professor Sumanasiri Liyanage, an economist at the University of Peradeniya in Kandy, says studies have shown that Sri Lanka's economy would be 30 per cent bigger than it is now if not for the war.
A recent World Bank report included Sri Lanka among 28 nations "highly vulnerable" to the global financial crisis because of its war-related spending and borrowing.
The Government insists that a military victory will pave the way for a political solution in the country and has pledged to spend more on economic development in areas liberated from the LTTE.
But Alan Keenan, a Colombo-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, says the war has destroyed many of the tools needed for Sri Lanka to build a peaceful future. "Unfortunately the war has set in motion a set of dynamics which run counter to any kind of democratic political solution," Dr Keenan said.
One institution under extreme pressure in Sri Lanka is the media industry. On January 6, the studio of the Maharaja Television/Broadcasting Network was attacked by armed gunmen. Two days later, Lasantha Wickrematunga, editor of The Sunday Leader, was shot dead by two men on a motorcycle as he drove to work in Colombo.
Bhavani Fonseka, a human rights lawyer at the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo think tank, says a range of crucial civil institutions have come under sustained attack
"For a long time there has been suppression of any alternative views," she said.
Having won support among the majority Sinhalese community for the war, the Government must now find a way to rebuild the trust of a Tamil minority that is "scared and dislocated", according to one Colombo-based Western official. The aggressive tactics of the LTTE have left little room for other, more moderate, Tamil political groupings to build a large constituency.
"The impact of 25 years of war has been really devastating to the Tamil people and, apart from a few isolated voices, there is no truly democratic grouping representing them," Dr Keenan said.
"Many Tamils have remained silent because people who speak up don't always survive. But that will be one of the main problems in any postwar political process — where are the credible Tamil political voices?"
Mano Ganesan, one outspoken Tamil MP who represents a Colombo electorate, claims at least 400 Tamils have gone missing in the city over the past three years, 14 of them this month. A much larger number have disappeared in the north of the country. Many of these "abductions" could only have been done with the "tacit co-operation" of the authorities, he said. "People in this city are living in fear."
Mr Ganesan fears that the demise of the LTTE will lead to a "Sinhalese Buddhist hegemony" and leave Tamils even more vulnerable to intimidation and victimisation.
"If the Government wins the war there will be no political solution, it will be an imposition," he said. "Unless and until the root causes that created the LTTE are addressed, this tragedy will continue. We have lost the pan-Sri Lankan dream."
The feeling of insecurity is underscored on a daily basis by the tight security in many of Sri Lanka's cities and towns. Those travelling by vehicle around the capital, Colombo, are stopped constantly by heavily armed troops at checkpoints for vehicle searches and ID checks.
One goal of the high security is to prevent suicide bomb attacks, but many local Tamils claim that they are routinely harassed during searches.
Mr Ganesan predicts many more Tamils will follow the 1 million members of their community who have already left Sri Lanka for Western countries.
One of them is Meenakshi Venkadeshan. In a few months, the 34-year-old musician and mother of two will leave Colombo to join her husband, who has already migrated to Australia. "I'm tired of the harassment and intimidation," she said. "I'm not hopeful about the future for Tamils here."
If Ms Venkadeshan's attitude is any guide, the Government will have to follow up its military success with sweeping changes to its approach if Tamils are going to feel they are respected citizens of the country.
Yasushi Akashi, Representative of the Government of Japan for Peace Building, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction in Sri Lanka, on Friday said the LTTE should not be allowed to use civilians as a human shield. 
