Major crisis ahead, economists warn

(Repeats to additional subscribers with no changes)

* Exporters sell dollars on rupee appreciation talk

* Shares edge up in thin trade on select bluechips

* Investors stay away over profit, war, and economy woes

By Shihar Aneez

Sri Lanka's rupee edged up on
Wednesday as exporters sold some dollars expecting the rupee to
appreciate on a possible $1.9 billion IMF loan now being
negotiated, while shares rose on select bluechips.

The rupee rose to 114.20/25 per dollar, from
Monday's 114.25/35. On Feb. 27 it hit an all-time low of
115.75/95 before the central bank intervened to keep it steady.

Both currency and share markets were closed on Tuesday for
a Buddhist religious holiday.

Four analysts from four banks Reuters spoke to said one
state bank, through which the central bank directs the market,
offered dollars at 114.25.

"Some exporters are seen converting their dollars," said
one currency dealer.

The central bank last week said it was negotiating a $1.9
billion loan with the IMF to help weather the global financial
crisis and support post-war construction. [ID:nCOL298469]
The rupee has fallen 5.45 percent since Oct. 30, after the
central bank allowed depreciation to preserve dollars and
enhance exporter competitiveness. It is down 1.07 percent so
far in 2009.

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For Q+A on where the rupee is heading see [ID:nCOL27614]

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The rupee has been falling steadily since the central bank
reduced heavy intervention designed to prevent sharp
depreciation that cost it a sizeable chunk of foreign exchange
reserves.

The benchmark 91-day treasury bill rate fell 27 basis
points to 15.46 percent at weekly auction. [ID:nCOL384320]

The Colombo All-Share index .CSE edged up 0.44 percent or
7.21 points to 1637.91, its third rise after falling to near a
two-month low on earnings and economic worries.

"Investors are looking for direction," said Shivantha
Meepage, a research analyst at Acuity Stockbrokers said. "Still
earnings worries keep investors away from the market. There
will be a boom if the IMF money comes in."

Other analysts said the war and high interest rates are
also weighing on the bourse.

Top mobile phone operator Dialog Telekom DIAL.CM closed
2.17 percent firmer at 4.70 rupees, calculated on a weighted
average, while top conglomerate John Keells Holdings JKH.CM
rose 0.90 percent to 55.75 rupees.

Shares in Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka DIST.CM rose
2.59 percent to 59.50 rupees, while cement manufacturer, Lanka
Cement LCEM.CM closed 5 percent stronger at 10.50 rupees.

The bourse is up 9 percent so far this year after falling
40.8 percent in 2008, largely on corporate earnings crunched by
high borrowing costs that cut growth.

Market turnover was 37.7 million rupees ($0.33 million), a
fraction of the 2008 daily average of 464 million rupees.

The interbank lending rate or call money rate CLIBOR
edged up to 12.305 percent from Monday's 12.259 percent.

For secondary market rates, please see <0#lkbmk=>.
($1=114.225 Sri Lankan rupees)
(Editing by Bryson Hull)

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